Ontario finally has a long term COVID plan rather than reacting on an ad hoc basis. It's longer than necessary IMHO, but if all goes well, it means that society should be pretty open by the end of August.
It is set to begin two weeks after we have hit a 60% vaccination rate of eligible adults, and they have set that as June 12 although we hit the 60% target on the weekend. Not only are we at 60% of adults, but 50% of all Ontarians have received first dose, and kids 12 and over will soon begin to be able to book appointments.
I think the caution is a result of loosening up too quickly after phase 2, and the 3rd wave has been a wave indeed. The signs are promising though. Aside from the vaccination rollout going well, the new daily case numbers have fallen from >4000 to <2000 for several days.
Canada got a slow start, but we now have a greater rate of vaccinations than the USA. Of course, many American have two doses while most Canadians have only one injection. Still, recent progress has been good, and the majority of Canadians are not vaccine resistant to the same extent as some Americans, so it should continue to go well.
I am not going to list everything involved in the three phases, although I will include a more comprehensive chart at the end, but here are a few highlights.
Phase One will see outdoor gatherings of up to 10 people and outdoor dining of 4 pre table. Essential retail outlets will be allowed more occupancy, and non-essential retail establishments will begin to open.
In phase two, outdoor gatherings may increase to 25, and 6 people will be able to gather at outdoor dining tables. Retail will open more and personal care service can resume, masks only.
The final phase will permit large outdoor gatherings and the re-opening of indoor dining and so on.
The main trigger for the various levels will be vaccine percentage. As I've already posted, the trigger for the first phase kicks in two weeks after we hit the 60% vaccination level, which we have done. The second phase can commence once 70% of adults have their first dose and 20% are fully vaccinated. The third phase requires 70% - 80% first vaccines and 25% being fully vaccinated.
I am hopeful that dates will be moved up a little if all goes well with getting the vaccine out and getting the caseload down, but if not, we should begin to feel less restricted by early July and much less restricted come August.
It has been a long haul, and it isn't over, but I think we see the light at the end of the tunnel rather than a freight train.
16 comments:
That's great news, but a slow return to somewhat normality...I hope it saves more lives, which is what it's all about! Our state of NC monthly rate of cases and deaths has fallen pretty well, and I'm hoping our "mask restriction removed" didn't come too soon. Lots of us with compromised immune systems are still masking around others, even outside. But I'm happily going for walks without a mask. And eating with friends in outdoor seating at restaurants. I've even had a friend come over for "tea time" coffee this week.
I am checking my body carefully to see if there are appendages other than my fingers and toes that I can cross. Nothing yet, but pleeeeze, can we return to normal soon?
I wish more Americans supported this logical and science-based approach. But too many are anti-mask, anti-vaccine but pro opening everything up! They don't seem to see the connection.
We have been lucky on this island, though It’s more than luck really. We have 10 or so cases due to travel but restrictions entering the province are strictly enforced. Travel across to NS or NB is limited to single day trips such as medical appointments with several tests on return are required. On the island, we use masks at stores etc but we can go around the island and not need a mask since there are so few people on the trails and beaches and we stay apart anyway. Our lives are restricted but nothing like the rest of Canada. All the same, we will be thrilled when everything is back to normal, whatever that is for each of us.
We have been loosening some restrictions in our area..... but I take a wait and see attitude about it all. I regret that we in the US have such a high percentage of anti-vaccine folks....that I take what is an unfortunate “guinea pig” approach. In this approach, I (sadly) wait about four weeks with each lifting of one or another restriction before I consider adopting it..... with the folks who immediately adopt the new freedoms serving as guinea pigs for this experiment to see if it actually pans out. Our US CDC, which I used to admire, still seems to not currently be offering fully science based logic on their recommendations.... they seem all too ready to move their guidance on what is politically more “valuable” at times. It is disappointing. Science still suggests caution, and I fear that too early loosening especially with the anti-vaccine people’s behavior will end up having us not reach a high enough vaccination rate.... and the potential for mutations in COVID strains will very possibly arise that are immune to the vaccine.
PipeTobacco
Cases are going up again here... not entirely unexpected as more people are mixing and indoor dining is allowed in restaurants in groups of up to six from two households, with restrictions on alcohol sale. Outoor we can meet in groups of six from six households. Unfortunately it is cold and wet, has been for weeks. Vaccination rate is high but there is still a large proportion of unvaccinated persons, particularly younger ones. A long term plan is good and taking it slowly is good, too.
Although I am fully vaccinated, I am still cautious because it feels a bit risky to go into a crowded store without masks. Fortunately, I am not alone in this feeling, as even stores that don't require them any more are still having more than half their customers masked. It is beginning to loosen up around here, and that is really good news.
It still feels so far away.
I am at the stage when I will believe it when I see it. In the meantime, we are cheating on the roll-out and having a distanced meeting for the grandkid's 18th birthday. Do not tell Mr. Ford. Zoom just does not do it for a milestone like this one.
Thanks for the analysis. I can now happily borrow it and not have to sweat through the on-line analysis. You're a real pal.
I hope it works this time. It seems like in the past they have been in too much of a hurry to open things up. Covid always has another idea.
I am fully vaccinated but have an autoimmune disease so they still recommend that I wear a mask and that is fine with me. I do agree that maybe we will be seeing the light at the end of the tunnel this year. The question is when--but I think we will. Been a long haul! :)
In Toronto, everyone above 18 can get vaccinated now. Hopefully, we will be out of lockdown by June 2.
My fervent hope is that all who will, do get vaccinated. The protesters (Ottawa Market; Toronto vax clinic) can just shut up and go away.
I guess it doesn't surprise me that Canada is taking a conservative approach. We are pretty much beyond your "final phase" and everything is back to normal though I still wear a mask indoors if crowded when out and about which isn't very often and I'm in the minority again of mask wearers versus those that don't wear them. All the eating establishments are fully open with no social distancing anymore but most are leaving the plexiglass dividers up.
We officially have near 50% vaccinated with both doses and somewhat higher with one does. But the biggest things is the case rate is down like 20% last week alone and is now at the lowest point since like the second week of April. I suspect, as I think I've told you before, I think all this is due to our poor initial approach and because we paid the price in the form of deaths and those who went through Covid, we were able to reach herd immunity much faster than those who did much better jobs at preventing the spread.
I should clarify that our case rate is down to where it was the second week of April 2020, the month after this nightmare began and not referring to last month.
Hawaii is still mindful of the possibility. The Lt. Governor and mayor want to open up everything, but our governor is being cautious. I like cautious.
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