Saturday, January 13, 2018

Playing the Odds

There was a interesting juxtaposition of information that came my way this morning. No sooner had I read one of my blog friends who doesn't bother with flu shots, that an article about flu shots appeared on my desktop. Synchronicity is a delightful thing sometimes.

For a very brief summary (the whole article is linked above, and oh heck here again), there are H1, H2 and H3 years (also known as A, B and C). This is an H3 or C year, and H3 is the most difficult strain to control, so that the vaccine only gives us 33% protection.

 I trust that I don't have to explain that 33% as greatly preferable to 0%.

It may just be that the 33% will work in my case. For example: I was exposed to TB as a kid and have tested positive all of my life, and this always raised the concern of people when the test was administered (as it was up until the early 80s in my case). But somehow, although I was exposed, I didn't contract TB, at least not in a meaningful way, and I am very grateful for this.

So perhaps a flu vaccine will help my body resist if I am exposed. It seems like both common and scientific sense to me. You can't rely on personal anecdotes such as A had the shot but still got the flu, but B didn't get the shot and didn't get the flu. It proves nothing.

Meanwhile, for the H1/A and H2/B seasons the efficacy of the shots rises to 67% and 54% respectively. The sensible path is very clear to me.

The lesson as I see it is to follow the best information available in life. Science isn't infallible, but it is self-correcting and gives us the best information possible. Consider weather forecasts, for example: they are not always perfect, but they're pretty darn good and reliable most of the time. If they predict an ice storm, I take sensible precautions. If the storm does not eventuate, I do not vow to never listen to another forecast.

One way to look at it is this: over three years let us accept that the chances of the vax working is 67%+54%+33%. The average for those three years for preventing the flu is over 50%, and that works for me, especially when the shot costs me nothing. I don't mean "nothing" in primarily monetary terms although it is that but also nothing in terms of time, the shot only taking a few minutes of my precious time in a whole year. It's also nothing in terms of side effects. I experience none.

I'll will accept those good odds that also come at no cost.

(Just a note that this post resulted from me thinking about two disparate readings this morning and is not intended as a slam against the person who wrote the anti-vax post, which was actually more about practicing good hygiene, with which I concur.)


9 comments:

Joanne Noragon said...

I've totally lost confidence in flu vaccinations. My reading gives them 10% effectiveness against any strain, any year. On top of that, the last two or three vaccinations I had, and I had them religiously up to then, put me to sleep for two or three days. I concluded I actually was having an allergic reaction, and quit them.
I worked with the public then, shook hands, took their money, had my personal space invaded. My rules: never touch your eyes, nose or mouth unless you have washed your hands since touching germs. That was tough, but I did it. It's kept me healthy all these years. Last flu shot was +/- 2000. Last case of flu was 1989. Last cold, I cannot remember. Wash your hands and keep them off your face.

Dale said...

Regular vaccinations are important for those with pre-existing conditions. An ounce of prevention ...

Shammickite said...

This year I decided to have the flu shot. I haven't had one for quite a few years. I also got the Prevnar 13 anti-pneumonia shot, and last year I got the shingles shot. So I should be Ok for a while. Fingers crossed.

Marie Smith said...

I haven’t had the flu shot in several years now. I debate each year but am obsessed with hand washing and not touching my face. This fall, the debate will begin again.

Tabor said...

I believe in science and with their mistakes they are still better than the average of instinct of a hunch person. Doctors ( medical scientists) are clear about those who should not get these shots and that is as reliable as can be...nothing is 100%. I always get my shots.

Jenn Jilks said...

Good research, I have not gotten one this year.
You are right that 33% is better than 0, but I didn't get my usual bronchial infection in Nov or Dec. I was shocked.
For 2 years I've had a client who has given me this, I often get it from respite clients! They get it from their kids, who get it from their kids...
Hubby wasn't allowed to get it at the pharmacy, as the druggist want him to check with his GP. Our GP told him to check with the urologist, who is giving him anti-androgen treatments for his prostate cancer. It's all very complicated.
I believe in the flu shot, and usually get it since I work with high-risk clients, but I find we get some immunity from the grandkids short visits.

Christina said...

Did you receive the BCG vaccine as a child? This can result in a positive TB test even if you don't have or had TB. We used to be screened at school, this included the x-ray in the van! I missed my flu shot for a number of reasons and I do feel guilty for it. Our younger children are vaccinated at school, which I greatly appreciate. They got the tetravalent flu mist, which is more protective this year. My two older children (in their teens) are not eligible for the flu shot. It is odd actually. adults can go to the pharmacy and be immunised for a fee if they are not eligible for the free shot. Younger children get the flu shot at school but teenagers can't without doctors prescription, which we can't get because they are not in a risk group.... I am a scientist with a strong belief in science. Glad other people do, too. I popped by via The Frog and PenguINN" and have been scrolling through past posts.

Christina said...

I meant to add it's good to meet you.

Vicki Lane said...

I'm a believer in vaccines -- have never had the flu since I started getting the vaccine. I also am careful about handwashing, etc.